Monday, November 15, 2010

And I got really afraid.......

This is to share the experience today. Everything happened within minutes but is somehow unforgettable.

Today (15th November 2010), my day began like any normal day. A test in the morning & a lazy afternoon. Chennai was blissful as it rained in the morning but then rains took a break & I was treated to nice sun.

At around 3 PM, I received call from my mom that my dearest uncle & aunt are in chennai. They were touring complete down south & have come to Chennai today to meet me. So I called them up right away & decided to visit them. My college is near Mahabalipuram & my uncle & aunt were in chennai around 60 km away from me. So in the excitement I hopped onto my bike & started towards chennai. First mistake was to forget the jacket at my room though I took my helmet with me blissfully.

Travelling on the east coast road is always fun & today was no exception. I rode along at decent speed till the sky began to get darker. Within 10 minutes, the sky changed its colour from light blue to dark black. The sea next to East Coast Road reflected the same black colour making things look more gaudy than actual. Within a minute, it started raining heavily. I had no option to stop the bike under a tree & wait for rains to subside. The wait was much longer than expected but rains finally stopped & again the blue sky emerged. I was drenched even after standing under the tree. I continued my ride & reached chennai. Met my uncle & aunt. Had food with them. The Air Conditioner of the restaurant made the matters worst as I almost caught cold. Then it was a time to depart & I knew that rains won't spare me by just looking at the sky. So I packed my wallet & cell phone in a thick carry bag & started my journey backwards.

I had rode around 12-15 kilometers when my cell phone was buzzing. I stopped to attend the call. It was my friend Rajender. The conversation went like this -
Rajender - Where are you?
Me - Just of ECR (East Coast Road) yaar. Should be there in another half hour or 45 minutes
Rajender - It's raining very heavily here buddy
Me - What should I do yaar? I have to come there anyhow.
Rajender - See if you can stop somewhere for sometime because it is real heavy rain
Me - Chuck it off yaar. I will ride & see what happens

The conversation ended there. He is the last person to care about rains & all. When he was talking like this, I got the hint of what is in store for me. So I again started my bike & accelerated towards my college. When I was about 30 km away, full throttle rains caught me. The wind was so strong that it was literally shaking my bike. Rains shook hands with darkness to become more fierce. The clouds joined the party with loud lightning which was electrifying the sky for almost 2-3 seconds. The climate was showing its deadly avatar. On my left was never ending sea which was looking dreadful now & to my right was never ending ground which somehow were making me feel very lonely.

Anyways; I was driving along with my helmet visor up. The rain drops were really hitting me & were hurting a little. Keeping my eyes open in itself was a challenge. The traffic also had reduced considerably on the road. I was looking frantically for a shelter. A petrol pump, a community hall, a hotel, anything. But there were hardly few things visible on the road. By the time I reached near a board saying Mahabalipuram 14 km, I was completely drenched. My college was just 20-22 kilometres away & there was no point in stopping now. So I decided to continue driving.

Now the riding was converted to following. There was hardly any visibility & with constant hitting of rain drops, my eyes were all paining. I was not able to see much apart from the tail-lights of vehicles in front. So I decided to use my tested & trusted strategy. Follow the tail light!!!! I found a bike was in front of me & I started following it. Life was much easier now. Soon I realised that the biker was also following a toyota innova in front. So I continues travelling till I crossed mahabalipuram. College was just 6-8 kilometers away. Then suddenly the tail light I was following went down & disappeared towards my left.

I just stopped there. I could not understand what happened. There was no road apart from the ECR on which I was driving. That Innova had gone much far by now & I was left there without a clue of how come a bike suddenly disappeared. I looked again to my left & got one more rude shock. The bike had not disappeared but had slipped of the road into the fields next to it. The biker had lost control & bike had fallen. There were 2 people who were lying there in the field. Now I was in a fix. Whether to stop for their help or just follow some other vehicle & reach the college in next 10 minutes. So many thoughts ran through my mind. "These could be drunkards & I could land myself in trouble", "Someone could be really injured & then I might need to travel again on ECR to help him fetch help so just leave it (though I am angry in myself now for that selfish thought but that was my honest thought at that point of time)", "What if they are not injured & might just end up robbing me". So amidst all these negative thoughts, sane thinking prevailed & I decided to give it a try to help those people. So without turning off my bike, I took it ahead & scanned the person lying near the road using the headlight. The person was a young guy around 16-17. So I stopped my bike, parked it & went near that guy.

I uttered the most stupid question at that moment "What happened?". Sitting here, I can laugh about it but in that situation when I was in half senses, I could come only with this. He told me that he somehow thought there is a left turn & turned. His bike slipped & both of them fell down. So we went near the other person. She was a girl around the same age as that boy. So I understood that they were a young couple who were on a bike ride which has gone terribly wrong. Till this time, nobody knew anybody's name. That guy asked the girl "Are you okay?". The girl responded "Yes". So the guy asked "Are you injured?" Girl said "Yes". Then we tool a look at her hand. It was scratched badly. She must have landed up on her hand. The girl also saw it again & then started realising the pain. I asked that guy about his injuries & he also had his hand scratched but not that badly.

Then I told him that I will help him in getting his bike up & running so that he can go home. I asked him where was his home. He told :Kalpakkam". It was 8 km further from my bike. But the next sentence gave me a blow. He said "Sir, I am very afraid right now. I can't drive now". I could very well understand his situation. Anyone would have got afraid at that point of time. It was raining very heavily now also. God of lightning was at his full glory & the mere sound of lightning was frightening on that dark lonely road for a guy who had just met an accident. So I told him, nothing to worry. Things happen. Forget it & move on. If you want, I will accompany you till kalpakkam. You can simply follow my bike. Again the guy said "No sir. Please don't ask me to drive now. Find some other solution." Listening to this, the girl started crying. I again told that guy "Come on man. You have to drive. how else do you plan to go home. If you want, we can go back to Mahabalipuram & wait there for sometime so that you can come back to normal. If we wait here, we ourselves might get hit by lightning or some snake or something". The guy then told me that this was not possible. I asked him why?, He told me that the girl whose name was Parul was his best friend. They both had bunked their evening tuition & were on a bike ride on ECR. They have to go home by 8:00 PM otherwise their parents will do berserk while searching for them. Listening to this, the girl started crying loudly & at the same time, started smashing her hands vigorously in the mud. I think she had lost it. The unforgiving rains, lightning, loneliness, ECR & thoughts about parents catching them red handed was something sh could not bear & she started acting as if she was mad.

So here was I. Caught between a guy whom I was not able to talk out of a situation to drive & a girl, talking to whom was senseless. I started feeling uneasy myself. I thought if something happens to this girl, I might be caught just like that in police matters. If their parents found them here with me, they might just beat me up also. I started to get afraid of the whole situation now. I told this guy whose name was Anand "Look man, I also need to go to my college. This is last time I am telling you either get up & drive the bike else I am leaving. Do whatever you want". I though this is my escape route & I can now go call police for help since I cannot leave this couple just like that on that lonely road.

To my utter astonishment, that guy replied "Please sir. I will not let you go. Please help us sir. Stay with us & help us. I will not let you go. I will even fight with you but not let you go." Now I was getting really nervous. If I start leaving, this guy might start doing something foolish & get beating from me which I never wanted. I wanted to help those people but the situation was really getting out of control. I looked at him. He was looking at me but I can clearly see that he was pleading than being arrogant or in a fightful mood. At this point of a time, I looked at the girl. She had stopped crying & was sitting squarely in mud & was staring at the road constantly. Her eyes showed no emotions at all. This really got me. I was terrified. I thought something has happened to this girl & I told Anand that please go near her & talk to her. He went near her & shook her. The girl just looked at him & started staring at the road again. I thought that she has lost her mental balance. I was cursing myself for being in the situation & still could not run away for the simple reason that I was afraid of the outcome of me running away. It would have haunted me for years that I ran away from those people who really wanted my help. I did not wanted to be a reason for something really bad happening & looking at that girl, I thought she could do anything stupid next moment.

So I thought to myself. What can I do now. First thing that came to my mind was to stop a truck & ask him to carry the bike & the couple to kalpakkam. But the next moment I dropped that thought since meeting a wrong intentioned truck driver would have meant more trouble. Next thought was to stop here only till the rains go by. But I could not just stand there like a dumb while that girl loses it minute by minute. Then again a thought came. Run & call the police. But where was I going to get a police van. And in the mid time, what if these people commit some act of foolishness. I was running out of options very quickly.

So I just took that guys bike out of mud, took it to road & started it. It started instantly. I looked at that guy in a hope of him coming to drive now at least. But he was just sitting down in the mud & looking at me. I again went to him & asked him if he could call some of his friends so that they can drive & carry these people through. He said No. They all will be in a tuition now. So I told him again that in this scenario, he has to drive or face the wrath of parents or risk something happening to his friend. I assured him that I will drive right next to him & make sure that I stay on the left so that these people do not skid off the road. I told that if he starts getting afraid again, I will call my friends to help us. I assured him that once we reach my college, I will some of my friend to drive his bike. I lied that my college is just 1-2 km away. By that time, the rains also had slowed down & the visibility was much better. I told him that this is the only chance to reach my college. This time he said "Sir promise me that you will not run away after starting your bike." I assured him that If I had to run away, I would have done that long back.

So after around 10 minutes of drama, he agreed to give it a shot to drive this bike. He went to Parul & told her to get up. She got up & followed him closely. I could see that she was shaking while walking. He started the bike & started driving along with me. I was on his left to make sure that he does not sway away from the road again. By the time we reached college, we had driven good 6-7 km. So I asked Anand, "Should I call my friends for help?". To my surprise, he said No. I think I can go till kalpakkam now. I said Ok lets go on. He told me that I do not need to come now & he has recovered now. He thanked me for helping him despite his foolishness & threats to fight. He was looking much better now. Parul though was just leaning over Anand & was not uttering a single word. I still decided to go till kalpakkam. I went ahead with them & when they turned into their locality, I turned my bike & came back.

I don't know what to make of it or whether to make anything of it. While we were on bike, I came to know that both of them were belonging to plant engineers families. They had shifted here recently & had no friends apart from two of them. So he really had no option to call any friends & was afraid that his friend will die because of injuries & that was the reason he would have even fought with me if I would have started leaving the place. The whole incidence was over in about 45-50 minutes but has left an ever lasting impression of me. I realised how selfish I can think when situation is worse & how moods swing in moments!!!!!!!!!

Saturday, May 1, 2010

The Chinese Saga

Now this is pretty old, chewed and screwed topic. But still I saw my favorite writers James Chanos and Thomas Friedman fighting over the same, I thought of digging into more details and came up with this.....



China as everyone knows is a manufacturing giant. When I say Giant, I really mean a giant. A huge mythological creature that cares for none and wants to be on top of everyone. That is precisely what Chinese agenda looks like as on today. China has mastered the art of manufacturing. They can produce anything and everything at lowest costs ever imagined. But how do they do it and will they survive is the question everybody is asking.....

In China, communism is the way of life. Almost every company is state owned or state controlled which ensures that the profits go to the government which acts as an agent circulating it to the needy ones. This also explains the 200 trillion dollar forex china is holding. Keeping the companies state owned has its added benefits. The companies do not need to pay for land, water, electricity and many more taxes which makes the cost of final product come down significantly. Add to it the ever reducing value of renminbi, this makes a china an invincible competitor in the manufacturing domain. The huge and skilled labour pool helps china it staying afloat despite the low costs. The Chinese have achieved double digit growth year on year for more than a decade now.

The other area where china is excelling is the Green Corridor. The whole world is behind the greenest of the technologies and china is leading the producers list. Hu Jintao has realised that this is where the future is. So his country are going in full force towards the century which is better known as the century that will belong to Asia. So china does not need to worry about its survival in the future. It looks safe from this aspect.

The last point which in history had made many countries go down is the population or the educated population as I may say. The rebellions and riots have marred the growth of many countries in the past. China has done a beautiful job in this regard. They did not give a damn to Google and GoDaddy. They implemented their Internet framework beautifully and have controlled what Chinese people can see and listen to. Nowhere in the world we can see manipulation of ones thought process on a humongous scale. This has eliminated the possibility of a rebellion or a riot that can cross its roads with growth story of China. Apart from some clashes between Uighur Muslims, its going good.

The factors that worry USA, India like terrorism, terror attacks etc do not worry China. Reason is simple. They have a close bonding with countries like Pakistan which are the epicentres of Terrorism. So this diplomatic move has virtually made china invisible to terrorists. Does this mean that China growth story is not going to stop at all???? Well I don't think so. Lets see the other side of the Chinese coin.

China has the domestic consumption to export ratio of 30:70 which means that whatever is produced in China, 70% of it has to be exported for the country to survive. This is a very large quantity when the Chinese manufacturing is considered. When the world leaders like Barack Obama and Angela Merkel are going with their agenda of strong national spirit, there is every possibility that the markets doors may be shut for china for a smaller duration at least by means like anti dumping duty, declaring china as currency manipulator. This will be a disaster for china as it will have to tackle the problem of huge unemployment.

Folks say that Chinese forex can come handy in these situations. But that will add to Chinese worries. The moment china starts selling dollars, dollar availability increases. The increase in supply will outrun the demand and the dollar value will come down. What this does is, it will make the US companies more competitive now that the currency gap has vanished. So the markets for use and throw Chinese products will once again go back to US pockets. China growth story might come to a full stop.

Second thing is a close market policy of China. China has been traditionally a market behind the Great wall. Companies made severe attempts to jump across but have failed due to the restrictions even on basic human rights. This makes china a not so global economy. Closing doors for imports is bound to strain the bilateral relationships with USA, Germany and many more. The severe state of this is a ban on business with China, something of a similar sort which was imposed on India when they did nuclear tests. This can spell the dusk for Chinese empire.

One more point here is the Chinese domestic situation. Continuous depreciation of renminbi has exerted pressure on Chinese countrymen. The same 10 Yuan gets converted to 6 Yuan in 3 months. This has pushed a noticeable portion of Chinese population into hardships and is like a time bomb waiting to explode. China can do nothing for this as appreciating yuan means stopping the exports which again is a disaster. So it tries to control the banking rates and temporarily control the effects. This makes people take out the money from banks and invest the same in market in hope of better returns. But it is not a long time solution. China has nowhere to go once the interest rates reach zero.

So where does China go from here. I think the Hu Jintao government has realised that export is going to stop one day. So they are taking smart decisions. They are purchasing fertile lands in Africa and other parts of continent. They are investing their money of research there to yield better returns. In the world where hungry folks are getting added every second, investment of agriculture is bound to yield good returns.

One more thing which they are investing on is the area of Defence. This is something which is an evergreen market. Countries don't mind paying high price for better equipments. So a higher and better renminbi can survive in this market. This is something which USA has been doing for ages. The investment in Green Technology also promises to do wonders for Chinese economy.

So all in all, what I feel is that even though the Chinese export story might end in near future, the Chinese dominance will continue. It will depend upon countries to purchase its latest technology. The only threat that still remains is the loss of competitive cost advantage once the renminbi appreciates. If Chinese can find a way to control this situation, I feel there is no country which can stop China!!!!!!!!!!!!!!